Recent trends in the mortality rate from renal disease in children and young adults in New York City.

Analysis has shown that the over-all death rate from renal disease for residents of New York City under 25 years of age has declined from 4.6 per 100,000 in 1950 to 2.3 per 100,000 in 1970. Nephritis and nephrosis was the major disease category accounting for this decrease in deaths. A similar trend was found for the United States as a whole. Other causes of renal disease did not manifest consistent changes in death rates. The decline in deaths from nephritis and nephrosis could not be ascribed solely to changing diagnostic habits or terminology. A possible alternative explanation is a change in the natural history of these diseases. Data of this type might be useful as an index to future trends in the mortality rate from renal diseases and as one basis for projections of potential future needs for dialysis and renal transplantation. Using 1965 data, we estimate the number of such potential candidates in New York City would have been 9 per 1,000,000 for the 5 to 14 year age group and 23 per 1,000,000 for the 15 to 24 year age group. There are significant limitations of projections based on such data. These estimates of potential candidates for chronic dialysis or renal transplantation are the first available for children in the United States.