Predicting long-term nursing home transfer from MI choice waiver program.

This study aimed to identify characteristics of elderly participants in the Michigan Home and Community-Based Waiver Program that are associated with high risk of long-term nursing home (LT-NH) placement. We identified 8172 waiver clients aged 65 and older during 10/1/2010-9/30/2014. A proportional cause-specific hazards regression model was used to analyze risk factors of waiver elderly for LT-NH placement. Waiver elderly participants who were white (HR (white vs. black): 2.76, with 95% CI (1.91, 4.00); HR (white vs. other races): 1.77, with 95% CI (1.05, 2.97)), had a history of long-term care use (HR: 1.42, 95% CI (1.14, 1.76)), mental disorders (HR: 1.51, 95% CI (1.23, 1.86)), bathing dependency (HR: 1.43, 95% CI (1.07, 1.89)), and finance management dependency (HR: 1.73, 95% CI (1.15, 2.60)) had greater hazards of LT-NH placement. Our study can be useful for policy makers to develop relevant support to reduce LT-NH placement.