Modeling the public health impact of vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, LP.8.1, 2025-2026 formula in the pediatric population aged 5-17 years at high risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 in the United States.

INTRODUCTION

This study evaluated the potential public health impact of receiving Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, LP.8.1, 2025-2026 formula, in the US pediatric population aged 5-17 years at high risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND

METHODS

A previously published static decision-tree model was adapted to compare health outcomes with and without vaccination. Demographic, epidemiological, vaccine (effectiveness, vaccine uptake), and clinical model inputs were derived from surveillance data and relevant published studies.

RESULTS

In the absence of LP.8.1-adapted BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination, COVID-19 burden among those aged 5-11 years and 12-17 years was projected as 1,007,114 and 1,467,724 symptomatic cases, 2,493 and 2,547 hospitalizations, and 109 and 107 COVID-19-related deaths, respectively. Assuming observed 2024-2025 uptake levels of 8.7% and 8.6% among those aged 5-11 and 12-17 years, respectively, LP.8.1-adapted BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination was projected to avert 4,387 and 7,146 symptomatic cases, 27 and 31 hospitalizations, and 1 death in each age group, respectively. Increasing uptake to 50% would increase the health burden averted 6-fold.

CONCLUSIONS

Receipt of an LP.8.1-adapted COVID-19 vaccine was projected to reduce the COVID-19 burden in the high-risk pediatric population, even with low vaccine uptake. Increasing vaccine uptake in this population could yield larger public health impact.