Subjective predictions of outcome among alcoholics.

This study examines the importance of Subjective Staff Ratings as predictors of the 3- and 12- month outcomes in 375 male primary alcoholic inpatients. For short-term outcome, while combinations of more usual predictors including two aspects of the pretreatment drinking history, evidence of a stable personal relationship, prior alcoholic hospitalizations, employment status, and posttreatment recovery home placement explained up to 5% of the variance on three measures of short-term outcome, Subjective Ratings alone explained up to 6%. The combination of Subjective Ratings and objective historical data explained up to 9% of the variance. The data indicate that it is difficult to accurately predict short term outcome among primary alcoholics, that the Subjective Ratings of prognosis by the treatment staff are important predictors of short-term outcome which do not overlap greatly with more traditional predictors, but that these ratings appear to add little to the longer term outcome prediction.