[Incidence and transmission patterns of rubella in Mexico].

OBJECTIVE

To describe changes in the transmission patterns of rubella in Mexico.

MATERIAL AND

METHODS

An analysis of rubella incidence during 1990-2005 was performed to estimate the morbidity trend through a simple linear regression model. Endemic mapping was carried out by logarithmic transformation of the geometric mean of monthly incidence rates and 95% CI to estimate high and low endemic ranges.

RESULTS

A stable trend was observed in morbidity during 1990-1998 ,descending during 1999-2005 (r=-0.88, r2=0.77), with a 97.1% cumulative decrease. Attenuation during seasonal variation, temporary interruption of transmission in 13 states and increase in the proportion of cases in 15-44 year-olds as well as in children less than one year of age, have been observed respectively after starting vaccination of children less than seven years of age and the implementation of combined strategy (children and adults) for rubella immunization, with incidence decrease in both groups.

CONCLUSION

Reinforcement of surveillance and routine-supplemental immunization activities would favor the interruption of endemic rubella and contribute to the continent-wide elimination proposal for 2010.