The increase in tuberculosis notifications in England and Wales since 1987.

SETTING

A retrospective study of tuberculosis notifications in England and Wales published by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys.

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the rise in tuberculosis notifications in England and Wales by different sub groups over the time period 1982-91.

DESIGN

The average annual percentage change in tuberculosis notification rates (per 100,000) for the groups were analysed by age, sex, standard region and disease site.

RESULTS

The average annual increase in tuberculosis notifications from 1987-91 in females was +2.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.5-4.7); males showed no significant change (-0.6%, 95% CI: -2.9 to +2.7). The increase was greater in younger subjects: 3.2% in females aged 25-44 (95% CI 0.9-5.5) and 4.3% in males aged 15-24 (95% CI 1.7-6.9). Only three standard regions showed an increase: the South East, the West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside. This increase was significant only in females from the South East, and was predominantly in non-respiratory tuberculosis.

CONCLUSION

The rise in tuberculosis notification rates from 1987-91 has been predominantly in females, in those under 65, has occurred in 3 regions, and predominantly in non-respiratory tuberculosis. The analysis highlights some of the inadequacies of the present notification system for tuberculosis.