Trends and predictions of myopia among Chinese children aged 7-12 years from 1985 to 2019.

The objectibve of this study was to analyze the prevalence, geographic distribution, and trends of myopia among Chinese children aged 7 to 12 years, in order to provide a basis for prevention and management. Data for children aged 7 to 12 years from the Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health (1985-2019) and 2019 myopia study for Han Chinese students aged 6 to 12 years were analyzed. The chi-square test and polynomial regression models were used to assess changes in myopia prevalence and predict trends. Data from 1,063,280 children in 30 provinces (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macau) showed a 3.3-fold increase in myopia from 12.69% in 1985 to 41.33% in 2019. Myopia peaked in 2010, then slowed. In 2019, myopia prevalence among Han Chinese children aged 6-12 was 37.54%, higher in urban (40.39%) than rural (34.62%) areas. The eastern region had the highest rate (40.38%). Projections estimate a prevalence of 40.39% in 2025, decreasing to 33.46% by 2030. Rural areas showed a faster increase from 2014 to 2019, with rural rates expected to surpass urban rates by 2022. Myopia prevalence is high among Chinese children aged 7 to 12 years, particularly in rural areas where rates are rising, underscoring the need for targeted prevention strategies.