Alzheimer's disease and dementia in Japan: Epidemiological trends, regional disparities, and future projections.

INTRODUCTION

Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) are a growing public health concern in Japan. This study examines historical ADOD burden trends, identifies contributing risk factors, and forecasts future projections using time-series modeling.

METHODS

This study uses the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021 data to analyze ADOD trends in Japan, and assess incidence, mortality, and Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Regression analysis identifies risk factors, and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is employed to forecasts the burden from 2021 to 2030.

RESULTS

ADOD cases have steadily increased, with projections indicating continued growth by 2030. Aging and life expectancy are major contributors, with urban areas like Kantō and Kansai region experiencing higher prevalence than Tōhoku and Kyūshū. High fasting plasma glucose, obesity, and smoking are significant modifiable risk factors. The ARIMA model forecasts an ongoing upward trend, highlighting a rising public health challenge.

DISCUSSION: Targeted policies, early interventions, and equitable health care access are vital to mitigating Japan's growing ADOD burden.

HIGHLIGHTS: Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) are rising in Japan due to an aging population. Key risk factors include high fasting plasma glucose, obesity, and smoking. Kantō and Kansai region have higher ADOD prevalence than other region ARIMA modeling predicts a continuous increase in ADOD cases through 2030. Targeted health care policies and preventive measures are crucial to mitigate the burden.