The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2026
The growing burden of dementia in Asia: Comparative insights from Japan, China, and India.
СтатьяСравнительное исследованиеНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
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Zhang Chen, Chen Xuhui, Sun Yongan
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADODs) are increasingly becoming a major public health concern in rapidly ageing Asia. We compared the disease burden across Japan, China, and India at different demographic stages.
DESIGN: The Global Burden of Disease Study of 2023 was used to analyze the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 1990-2023. Decomposition analysis identified drivers of DALYs trends. DALYs associated risk factors were quantified. The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model was used to predict future disease burden.
RESULTS: In 2023, China had the highest absolute burden, with age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of 156.63 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 136.58-175.49) and 918.83(95% UI: 784.59-1,058.24) per 100,000, respectively. Japan recorded the highest age-standardized mortality rate (31.25 [8.47-71.42] per 100,000). India had the highest annual increase in mortality and DALYs, with estimated annual percentage changes of 0.91 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.80-1.03) and 0.51 (0.45-0.56), respectively. Decomposition analysis revealed distinct drivers: Japan was dominated by epidemiological changes; China was driven by both aging and epidemiological changes; India was mainly due to population growth and epidemiological changes. Ambient particulate matter was the leading risk factor across all countries, though India faced a unique household air pollution burden. DALYs are predicted to increase in all three countries significantly by 2038.
CONCLUSIONS: The ADODs burden remains substantial, driven by distinct demographic and epidemiological factors in Japan, China, and India. Tailored strategies for prevention and management are essential to address the growing burden.
DESIGN: The Global Burden of Disease Study of 2023 was used to analyze the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 1990-2023. Decomposition analysis identified drivers of DALYs trends. DALYs associated risk factors were quantified. The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model was used to predict future disease burden.
RESULTS: In 2023, China had the highest absolute burden, with age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of 156.63 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 136.58-175.49) and 918.83(95% UI: 784.59-1,058.24) per 100,000, respectively. Japan recorded the highest age-standardized mortality rate (31.25 [8.47-71.42] per 100,000). India had the highest annual increase in mortality and DALYs, with estimated annual percentage changes of 0.91 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.80-1.03) and 0.51 (0.45-0.56), respectively. Decomposition analysis revealed distinct drivers: Japan was dominated by epidemiological changes; China was driven by both aging and epidemiological changes; India was mainly due to population growth and epidemiological changes. Ambient particulate matter was the leading risk factor across all countries, though India faced a unique household air pollution burden. DALYs are predicted to increase in all three countries significantly by 2038.
CONCLUSIONS: The ADODs burden remains substantial, driven by distinct demographic and epidemiological factors in Japan, China, and India. Tailored strategies for prevention and management are essential to address the growing burden.