BMC public health · 2026
Sex- and age-specific transmission pathways of mumps: a mechanistic SEPIAR modeling study in Chengdu, China (2008-2019).
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Yang Tianlong, Du Xunbo, Li Junfan, Long Lu, Xie Li, Wang Yao, Wang Liang
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Despite widespread mumps vaccination, recurrent outbreaks persist globally, underscoring the need to clarify sex- and age-specific transmission mechanisms.
OBJECTIVES: This study characterizes mumps epidemiology in Chengdu (2008-2019) and quantifies sex- and age-specific transmission pathways using a mechanistic modeling framework.
METHODS: A sex- and age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Pre-symptomatic-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEPIAR) model incorporating seasonal forcing was developed to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers (Rt) across 64 transmission pathways.
RESULTS: A total of 40,087 cases were reported (annual incidence: 21.72 per 100,000), with the highest burden among male students aged 5-14 and seasonal peaks in May-July and November-December. The model achieved good fit across demographic groups (R² = 0.13-0.73, P < 0.001). Females aged 10-14 exhibited the strongest transmission potential, particularly toward males aged 0-14 (median Rt: 1.18 to males 5-9; 0.75 to males 0-4; 0.55 within the same group). Sensitivity and empirical uncertainty analyses confirmed the robustness of these transmission patterns.
CONCLUSIONS: Sex and age may play an important role in shaping mumps transmission dynamics in Chengdu. The SEPIAR model may offer a useful framework for characterizing transmission pathways and identifying groups that could contribute disproportionately to spread. Interventions such as targeted vaccination during seasonal peaks, considering booster doses for females aged 10-14, enhancing surveillance in high‑incidence districts, and improving reporting capacity in rural areas could help reduce transmission and may support more effective and sustained mumps control in large urban settings.
OBJECTIVES: This study characterizes mumps epidemiology in Chengdu (2008-2019) and quantifies sex- and age-specific transmission pathways using a mechanistic modeling framework.
METHODS: A sex- and age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Pre-symptomatic-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEPIAR) model incorporating seasonal forcing was developed to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers (Rt) across 64 transmission pathways.
RESULTS: A total of 40,087 cases were reported (annual incidence: 21.72 per 100,000), with the highest burden among male students aged 5-14 and seasonal peaks in May-July and November-December. The model achieved good fit across demographic groups (R² = 0.13-0.73, P < 0.001). Females aged 10-14 exhibited the strongest transmission potential, particularly toward males aged 0-14 (median Rt: 1.18 to males 5-9; 0.75 to males 0-4; 0.55 within the same group). Sensitivity and empirical uncertainty analyses confirmed the robustness of these transmission patterns.
CONCLUSIONS: Sex and age may play an important role in shaping mumps transmission dynamics in Chengdu. The SEPIAR model may offer a useful framework for characterizing transmission pathways and identifying groups that could contribute disproportionately to spread. Interventions such as targeted vaccination during seasonal peaks, considering booster doses for females aged 10-14, enhancing surveillance in high‑incidence districts, and improving reporting capacity in rural areas could help reduce transmission and may support more effective and sustained mumps control in large urban settings.