BSE: a decade on--Part 2.

Predicted numbers vary widely but the most authoritative estimate is that about 6950 cases of BSE will occur in cattle in the UK during 1997-2001 if new infections via feed have ceased as expected and if 10% maternal transmission occurs in the last half-year of the maternal incubation period. This assumes no culling or premature slaughter. Agreed cull strategies would reduce these numbers considerably and accelerate the observed rate of decline of the disease, but there is no scientific necessity for any cull. Bovine products that were banned as specified bovine offals in 1989/90 and as specified bovine materials by successive legislation are now excluded from the food and feed chains. As this second of the two-part article on BSE shows, there has been slippage in some of our control measures, but public and animal health are adequately protected if the legislation that has been evolved is enforced along present lines. Meanwhile, for human beings, bovine milk is safe to drink and beef is safe to eat.