International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2025
Global burden of MASLD-IBD comorbidity from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction to 2050.
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Xu Yuanshan, Yi Youting, Zhang Xiankang, Jia Boyi, Huang Yanrong, Cui Renyun, Sun Haowen, Wang Meng, Wan Jin-Yi, Yao Haiqiang, Yuan Chun-Su
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), a prevalent chronic liver disorder, imposes a substantial global clinical and economic burden. Emerging evidence underscores inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) as a significant independent risk factor for MASLD. However, the global burden and trends of MASLD-IBD comorbidity remain largely obscured. This study aims to evaluate the global burden of MASLD-IBD from 1990 to 2021 and to project its trajectory to 2050. The findings will inform the development of proactive public health strategies.
METHODS: Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we quantified IBD's contribution to MASLD via population-attributable fractions. We analyzed the global prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), stratifying by socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, and age. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) assessed 1990-2021 trends; Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling projected 2050 trajectories.
RESULTS: In 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence of MASLD-IBD comorbidity reached 171.7 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 157.3-187.1), with a corresponding DALY rate of 0.5 cases (95% UI, 0.4-0.6) per 10 million population. High-income regions, including North America, Australia, and Western Europe, bore the highest burden. From 1990 to 2021, 20 out of 21 GBD regions exhibited escalating age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates, most markedly in East Asia (prevalence EAPC = 3.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.59-3.77) and East Europe (DALY EAPC = 4.05; 95% CI, 3.32-4.79). Middle SDI regions saw the largest absolute increases, with mortality mirroring DALY trends. Adults ≥ 60 years bore disproportionately higher burdens. By 2050, projections suggest divergent gender trends of rising female burden versus declining male rates.
CONCLUSIONS: MASLD-IBD comorbidity burdens have risen globally over three decades, necessitating targeted interventions, particularly for ageing populations and high-risk regions. Gender-specific strategies will be critical for mitigating future impacts.
METHODS: Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we quantified IBD's contribution to MASLD via population-attributable fractions. We analyzed the global prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), stratifying by socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, and age. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) assessed 1990-2021 trends; Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling projected 2050 trajectories.
RESULTS: In 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence of MASLD-IBD comorbidity reached 171.7 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 157.3-187.1), with a corresponding DALY rate of 0.5 cases (95% UI, 0.4-0.6) per 10 million population. High-income regions, including North America, Australia, and Western Europe, bore the highest burden. From 1990 to 2021, 20 out of 21 GBD regions exhibited escalating age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates, most markedly in East Asia (prevalence EAPC = 3.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.59-3.77) and East Europe (DALY EAPC = 4.05; 95% CI, 3.32-4.79). Middle SDI regions saw the largest absolute increases, with mortality mirroring DALY trends. Adults ≥ 60 years bore disproportionately higher burdens. By 2050, projections suggest divergent gender trends of rising female burden versus declining male rates.
CONCLUSIONS: MASLD-IBD comorbidity burdens have risen globally over three decades, necessitating targeted interventions, particularly for ageing populations and high-risk regions. Gender-specific strategies will be critical for mitigating future impacts.