DOI 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.09.015

Медицинская библиотека · Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi · 2017

[Application of State Space model in the evaluation of the prevention and control for mumps].

Luo C, Li R Z, Xu Q Q, Xiong P, Liu Y X, Xue F Z, Xu Q, Li X J

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Аннотация

Objective

To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014, and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province.

Methods

On the basis of certain model assumptions, a Space State model was formulated. Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters.

Results

The basic reproduction number (R(0)) for children in schools was 4.49 (95%CI: 4.30-4.67) and 2.50 (95%CI: 2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014.

Conclusions

Space State model seems suitable for mumps prevalence description. The policy of 2-dose MuCV can effectively reduce the number of total patients. Children in schools are the key to reduce the mumps.

Для цитирования: Luo C, Li R Z, Xu Q Q, Xiong P, Liu Y X, Xue F Z, Xu Q, Li X J. [Application of State Space model in the evaluation of the prevention and control for mumps].. Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi. 2017. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.09.015.

Предметные рубрики MeSH

Child Child, Preschool China Humans Immunization Schedule Infant Infant, Newborn Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine Mumps Mumps Vaccine Mumps virus Prevalence Space Simulation

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