Thirty-year trends in clinical kidney transplantation.

Trends in one-year graft survival rates seen in the past 30 years were examined in the UCLA and UNOS Registries. Some of the trends noted were as follows: 1. One-year graft survival rates for cadaver-donor transplants improved from 40% to 80% during this 30-year period. One-year patient survival improved from 50% to 95%. Transplants from living-related donors improved in graft survival from 80% to 90-95%. 2. Factors that diminished in importance were: recipient race, sensitization, primary disease, HLA haplotype matching in living donors, recipient and donor sex, kidney sharing, and transfusions. 3. Factors that continue to provide about a 10% variation of one-year graft survival are: cold ischemia time, HLA mismatch, recipient and donor age. 4. Posttransplantation, factors such as first-day diuresis, one-week dialysis, rejection at discharge, and discharge serum creatinine continue to be very important determinants of future outcome in 6 yearly subsets of patients. 5. Induction by ALG and OKT3 was shown in 6 subsets to have no effect on one-year graft survival. 6. Future trend studies will be needed to examine the 5-year long-term effects.