Analyses of the UNOS Scientific Renal Transplant Registry at three years--early events affecting transplant success.

The success of cadaveric renal transplants in the first year is determined largely by events that transpire during the transplant hospitalization. This conclusion is based upon analyses of data on 19,525 cadaver donor renal transplants performed since October 1987 and reported to the UNOS Scientific Renal Transplant Registry from more than 200 centers nationwide. Graft survival rates at 1 year differed by 20-30% depending upon whether or not the transplanted kidney functioned immediately and upon whether the patient required dialysis during the first week posttransplant, experienced rejection, or was discharged with a kidney that was functioning well. Recipients whose discharge serum creatinine level was less than 2.6 mg/dl or whose graft was functioning well at the time of discharge had 88% 1-year graft survival. A multistep logistic regression analysis showed cold ischemia time, transfusions, donor age and cause of death, HLA-DR mismatches, and peak sensitization to be significant factors in the first week. Prophylactic antilymphocyte antibodies (ALG/OKT3) reduced the incidence of rejection from 30% to 20% during the transplant hospitalization, but apparently only delayed rejection. By 6 months there was only a 3% reduction with ALG and a 5% reduction with OKT3 in the incidence of reported rejection and a 2% difference in 1-year graft survival. Although graft and patient survival are important measures of transplant success, graft survival is predicted upon both early and late events. The course of the transplant during the initial hospitalization and the quality of function at discharge were the strongest determinants of 1-year graft survival.