Geo-climatic factors in a newly emerging focus of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis in rural areas of north-eastern Iran.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the fatal form of leishmaniasis. A newly emerging focus of zoonotic VL (ZVL) including 13 villages has been reported from Maraveh Tappeh County, Golestan province, north-eastern Iran. We investigated the effect of climatic and environmental factors on the occurrence of disease in this focus by geographical information systems (GIS) approaches and logistic regression models. The incidence rate of ZVL in human and dog population was estimated 1.2% and 27.3%, respectively, in the studied areas. Rock soil type (OR = 11.7), rainfall (OR = 1.04) and elevation (OR = 0.99) were found as determinants of ZVL. Also, almost all infected villages were in close proximity of rivers. Cavities of rock soil around rivers are assumed as suitable areas for sandfly resting and growth by providing shadow and moisture. Rainfall also provides appropriate moisture in semi-arid regions for survival of sandflies. The negative effect of higher altitude can be explained by some sandfly life-limiting conditions like freezing weather. Accordingly, regions with lower altitude and higher rainfall, covered by rock and in close proximity of rivers, are the hazard zones for ZVL in the Maraveh Tappeh. Air humidity, temperature, land cover type and slope were not predictors of disease in the current study. Further investigations on human population movement, probable reservoirs and vectors of disease can provide valuable data for modelling the future distribution of ZVL in the Iranian province.