The Journal of infection · 2020
Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
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Stang Andreas, Standl Fabian, Kowall Bernd, Brune Bastian, Böttcher Juliane, Brinkmann Marcus, Dittmer Ulf, Jöckel Karl-Heinz
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany lasted from week 10 to 23 in 2020. The aim is to provide estimates of excess mortality in Germany during this time.
METHODS: We analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016-2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals.
RESULTS: During the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 60-69, 80-89, and 90+. The age group 70-79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10-23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1•03 (95%CI 1•03-1•04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80-89 and 90+ (SMR=1•08 and SMR=1•09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0•98 (95%CI 0•98-0•99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10-23, 2020.
CONCLUSIONS: The excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management.
METHODS: We analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016-2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals.
RESULTS: During the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 60-69, 80-89, and 90+. The age group 70-79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10-23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1•03 (95%CI 1•03-1•04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80-89 and 90+ (SMR=1•08 and SMR=1•09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0•98 (95%CI 0•98-0•99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10-23, 2020.
CONCLUSIONS: The excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management.