Hypothetical vaccination of the Dutch population with a herpes simplex virus vaccine: estimation of the profitability using a demographic projection model.

The apparently increasing evidence of herpes simplex virus infections of the genital tract has focused attention on preventing the infection by vaccination. Herpes genitalis is not, however, the most quantitatively important clinical manifestation of herpes simplex virus infections. Because 41% of the hospitalized patients are younger than 20 years, vaccination of birth cohorts would be more favourable. In this paper the financial benefits of a hypothetical herpes simplex virus vaccination were calculated with the use of a population projection model. For the Netherlands, if the price of the hypothetical herpes simplex virus vaccine equals the cost price of the mumps component of the combined mumps-measles-rubella vaccine, the herpes vaccine would be profitable within 8 years.