Prevalence and predictors of death and severe disease in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19: A comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of 77 studies and 38,000 patients.

INTRODUCTION

Progression of COVID-19 to severe disease and death is insufficiently understood.

OBJECTIVE

Summarize the prevalence of risk factors and adverse outcomes and determine their associations in COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase and Web of Science for case-series and observational studies of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through August 31, 2020. Data were analyzed by fixed-effects meta-analysis using Shore's adjusted confidence intervals to address heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Seventy-seven studies comprising 38906 hospitalized patients met inclusion criteria; 21468 from the US-Europe and 9740 from China. Overall prevalence of death [% (95% CI)] from COVID-19 was 20% (18-23%); 23% (19-27%) in the US and Europe and 11% (7-16%) for China. Of those that died, 85% were aged≥60 years, 66% were males, and 66%, 44%, 39%, 37%, and 27% had hypertension, smoking history, diabetes, heart disease, and chronic kidney disease (CKD), respectively. The case fatality risk [%(95% CI)] were 52% (46-60) for heart disease, 51% (43-59) for COPD, 48% (37-63) for chronic kidney disease (CKD), 39% for chronic liver disease (CLD), 28% (23-36%) for hypertension, and 24% (17-33%) for diabetes. Summary relative risk (sRR) of death were higher for age≥60 years [sRR = 3.6; 95% CI: 3.0-4.4], males [1.3; 1.2-1.4], smoking history [1.3; 1.1-1.6], COPD [1.7; 1.4-2.0], hypertension [1.8; 1.6-2.0], diabetes [1.5; 1.4-1.7], heart disease [2.1; 1.8-2.4], CKD [2.5; 2.1-3.0]. The prevalence of hypertension (55%), diabetes (33%), smoking history (23%) and heart disease (17%) among the COVID-19 hospitalized patients in the US were substantially higher than that of the general US population, suggesting increased susceptibility to infection or disease progression for the individuals with comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health screening for COVID-19 can be prioritized based on risk-groups. Appropriately addressing the modifiable risk factors such as smoking, hypertension, and diabetes could reduce morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19; public messaging can be accordingly adapted.