Prioritizing changes in management practices associated with reduced winter honey bee colony losses for US beekeepers.

Beekeepers attempt to manage their honey bee colonies in ways that optimize colony health. Disentangling the impact of management from other variables affecting colony health is complicated by the diversity of practices used and difficulties handling typically complex and incomplete observational datasets. We propose a method to 1) compress multi-factored management data into a single index, to holistically investigate the real world impact of management on colony mortality, and 2) simplify said index to identify the core practices for which a change in behavior is associated with the greatest improvement in survivorship. Experts scored the practices of US beekeepers (n = 18,971) documented using four years of retrospective surveys (2012-2015). Management Index scores significantly correlated with loss rates, with beekeepers most in line with recommendations suffering lower losses. The highest ranked practices varied by operation type, as recommendations accounted for the current prevalence of practices. These results validate experts' opinion using empirical data, and can help prioritize extension messages. Improving management will not prevent all losses; however, we show that few behavioral changes (in particular related to comb management, sources of new colonies and Varroa management) can lead to a non-negligible reduction in risk.