Global, regional, and national burden of Hodgkin lymphoma, 1990-2021, and predictions for 2050: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.

BACKGROUND

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), a lymphoid malignancy with bimodal age incidence, was analyzed across 204 countries (1990-2021) using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2021, with projections till 2050.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND

METHODS

Using GBD 2021 data, we assessed HL burden via incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with age-standardized rates/100,000. Trends were evaluated using frontier analysis, age-period-cohort modeling and Bayesian APC methods.

RESULTS

From 1990-2021, global HL cases increased 19.2%, while age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) fell 29.5%. Mortality declined 46.0%, with males showing higher ASIR (0.95 vs. 0.64) and mortality rates (0.43 vs. 0.26). High Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions had the highest ASIR (1.42) but fastest mortality declines (estimated annual percentage change(EAPC): -3.38), whereas low SDI areas exhibited the highest age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR: 0.7) and minimal improvement. Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa recorded peak ASMR (0.85) and DALY rates (ASDR: 36.96). Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC) projections predict sustained ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR reductions until 2050, with persistent gender/age disparities.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite rising HL cases due to demographic changes, age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs declined substantially over three decades and are projected to continue declining through 2050, indicating improved treatments. Persistent disparities across SDI tiers underscore the need for region-tailored strategies.