A Risk Calculator for Bipolar Disorder in Youth: Improving the Odds for Personalized Prevention and Early Intervention?

There have been many longitudinal studies examining biological and environmental risk factors for developing bipolar disorder in youth. Specifically, well-established risk factors for bipolar disorder in children and adolescents include having a family history of bipolar disorder, depression, disruptive behavior disorders, psychosis, antidepressant-induced manic symptoms, anxiety, and subsyndromal symptoms of mania and depression.1 In an effort to identify individuals at highest risk for developing bipolar disorder, several investigators have attempted to characterize a bipolar prodrome. A recent meta-analysis of early manifestations of bipolar disorder in youth found that the most common prodromal symptoms were increased energy, diminished ability to think, indecision, pressured speech, talkativeness, elated mood, academic or work difficulties, insomnia, depressed mood, and increased goal-directed activities.2 The authors concluded that despite many of the participants having symptoms prior to their illness onset, there was significant heterogeneity in symptom presentation, making it difficult to define a consistent bipolar prodrome. Although it is important to explore risk factors and rates of early symptoms of incipient bipolar disorder, to date, most studies have examined risk within an entire group rather than quantified an individual's risk of having bipolar disorder, which is essential to advance personalized monitoring and treatment strategies.