A prediction model for strike in the sheep nasal fly, Oestrus ovis, in Namibia.

A model was developed for predicting outbreaks of Oestrus ovis throughout the main sheep farming areas of Namibia. Pupal developmental periods were studied, concomitant air and soil temperatures enabling degree-day calculations to be made for prediction of adult fly strike. Monitoring of larval infection established seasonal incidence of O. ovis infestation and acted as verification of predictions. The establishment of relevant isothermal maps for Namibia made possible extrapolation from the several study sites to the entire sheep farming area. Retrospective and actual predictions of the important first peak after winter were considered accurate enough to recommend timing of control measures. No evidence of overwintering of first stage instars was found, the strategy used instead being extended pupation. Adult fly energy reserves were determined.