Strategies for Early Vaccination During Novel Influenza Outbreaks.

Ongoing research and technology developments hold the promise of rapid production and large-scale deployment of strain-specific or cross-protective vaccines for novel influenza viruses. We sought to investigate the impact of early vaccination on age-specific attack rates and evaluate the outcomes of different vaccination strategies that are influenced by the level of single or two-dose vaccine-induced protections. We developed and parameterized an agent-based model for two population demographics of urban and remote areas in Canada. Our results demonstrate that there is a time period before and after the onset of epidemic, during which the outcomes of vaccination strategies may differ significantly and are highly influenced by demographic characteristics. For the urban population, attack rates were lowest for children younger than 5 years of age in all vaccination strategies. However, for the remote population, the lowest attack rates were obtained for adults older than 50 years of age in most strategies. We found that the reduction of attack rates following the start of vaccination campaigns during the epidemic depends critically on the disease transmissibility, suggesting that for a sufficiently high transmissibility, vaccine delivery after the onset of epidemic has little or no effect, regardless of the population demographics.