Validation and extension of the EBMT Risk Score for patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) receiving allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplants.

The European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) devised a scoring system to predict survival after allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) for chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). The present International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry study of 3211 patients tested the EBMT Risk Score in a independent population, investigated the value of adding other variables, evaluated a new risk score specifically for chronic phase and compared the allograft risk scores with risk scores established by Sokal in 1984 and Hasford in 1998 for survival with non-transplant treatments. The primary outcome was 5-year survival after HSCT; survival curves, regression models and measurements of explained variation were used to compare scores. Using the EBMT scoring system, survival in the independent dataset was almost identical to those in the original EBMT publication, thus validating the EBMT Risk Score. Adding one extra variable, performance status, or designing a score specifically for early chronic phase by using the original five variables with different breakpoints gave results only slightly better than the original EBMT Score. Sokal and Hasford Scores did not predict survival after HSCT. We concluded that the EBMT Risk Score does not currently require modification.