Outcomes and predictive value of the 2MACE score in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with rivaroxaban in a prospective, multicenter observational study: The EMIR study.

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the 2MACE in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with rivaroxaban and to improve the accuracy of 2MACE.

METHODS

This was a post-authorization and observational study of AF adults treated with rivaroxaban for ≥ 6 months. The primary endpoint was any of the major adverse cardiac events (MACE), namely, cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and myocardial revascularization. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the performance of 2MACE, and a new score, 2MACER to predict MACE.

RESULTS

A total of 1433 patients were included (74.2 ± 9.7 years, CHA₂DS₂-VASc 3.5 ± 1.5, 26.9% 2MACE ≥ 3). The annual event rates (follow-up 2.5 years) were 1.07% for MACE, 0.66% for thromboembolic events and 1.04% for major bleeding. Patients with 2MACE ≥ 3 (vs. < 3) had higher risk of stroke/systemic embolism/transient ischemic attack (odds ratio [OR] 5.270; 95% CI 2.216-12.532), major bleeding (OR 4.624; 95% CI 2.163-9.882), MACE (OR 3.202; 95% CI 1.548-6.626) and cardiovascular death (OR 3.395; 95% CI 1.396-8.259). 2MACE was recalculated giving 1 more point to patients with baseline a glomerular filtration rate < 50 mL/min/1.73 m² (2MACER); 2MACER vs. 2MACE: IDI 0.1%, p = 0.126; NRI 23.9%, p = 0.125; AUC: 0.651 (95% CI 0.547-0.755) vs. 0.638 (95% CI 0.534-0.742), respectively; p = 0.361.

CONCLUSIONS

In clinical practice, AF patients anticoagulated with rivaroxaban exhibit a low risk of events. 2MACE score acts as a modest predictor of a higher risk of adverse outcomes in this population. 2MACER did not significantly increase the ability of 2MACE to predict MACE.