Tracking blood glucose and predicting prediabetes in Chinese children and adolescents: a prospective twin study.

We examined the tracking of blood glucose, the development of prediabetes, and estimated their genetic contributions in a prospective, healthy, rural Chinese twin cohort. This report includes 1,766 subjects (998 males, 768 females) aged 6-21 years at baseline who completed a 6-year follow-up study. Oral glucose tolerance test was performed for all subjects at both baseline and follow-up. We found that subjects with low fasting plasma glucose (FPG) or 2 h post-load glucose (PG) levels at baseline tended to remain at the low level at follow-up. Subjects in the top tertile of baseline plasma glucose tended to have a higher risk of developing prediabetes at follow-up compared to the low tertile: in males, 37.6% vs. 27.6% for FPG and 37.2% vs. 25.7% for 2hPG, respectively; in females, 31.0% vs. 15.4% for FPG and 28.9% vs. 15.1% for 2 h PG, respectively. Genetic factors explained 43% and 41% of the variance of FPG, and 72% and 47% for impaired fasting glucose for males and females, respectively; environmental factors substantially contribute to 2hPG status and impaired glucose tolerance. In conclusion, in this cohort of healthy rural Chinese children and adolescents, we demonstrated that both FPG and 2hPG tracked well and was a strong predictor of prediabetes. The high proportion of children with top tertile of blood glucose progressed to prediabetes, and the incidence of prediabetes has a male predominance. Genetic factors play more important role in fasting than postload status, most of which was explained by unique environmental factors.