Overweight and high serum total cholesterol were risk factors for the outcome of IVF/ICSI cycles in PCOS patients and a PCOS-specific predictive model of live birth rate was established.

PURPOSE: The clinical outcome after in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) is diverse in infertility patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram based on an association of patients' characteristics to predict the live birth rate in PCOS patients.

METHODS

All women in a public university hospital who attempted to conceive by IVF/ICSI for PCOS infertility from January 2014 to October 2018 were included. The nomogram was built from a training cohort of 178 consecutive patients and tested on an independent validation cohort of 81 patients. PCOS was confirmed in all participants.

RESULTS

Three variates significantly associated with live birth rate of PCOS patients were BMI, total serum cholesterol (TC) and basal FSH. This predictive model built on the basis of BMI, TC, basal FSH, type of embryo transferred and age showed good calibration and discriminatory abilities, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.708 (95% CI 0.632-0.785) for the training cohort. The nomogram showed satisfactory goodness-of-fit and discrimination abilities in the independent validation cohort, with an AUC of 0.686 (95% CI 0.556-0.815).

CONCLUSION

Our simple evidence-based nomogram presents graphically risk factors and prognostic models for IVF/ICSI outcomes in patients with PCOS, which can offer useful guidance to clinicians and patients for individual adjuvant therapy.