Modelling endemic onchocerciasis in man in the presence of vector controls.

A stochastic model for a parasitic disease is proposed which describes the acquisition of infectious material from an external source and the subsequent deterioration of the host reacting to the internally produced parasite. The model considers the endemic situation, where the disease is uncontrolled and the structure is both hierarchical and irreversible. The resulting compartmental model can be modified to incorporate piecewise-constant migration rates to respond to possible geographical and sociological fluctuations, which could affect the epidemiological dynamics. The model is illustrated using onchocerciasis prevalence data collected from nine West African village communities in 1975 and 1981, before and after the implementation of widespread larvacide controls as part of the O.C.P. in the Upper Volta region. Significance of the sex effects within onchocerciasis transmission is investigated and the effectiveness of controls is discussed.