Primary care diabetes · 2017
Predictors of undiagnosed prevalent type 2 diabetes - The Danish General Suburban Population Study.
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Heltberg Andreas, Andersen John Sahl, Sandholdt Håkon, Siersma Volkert, Kragstrup Jakob, Ellervik Christina
Аннотация
AIMS: To investigate how self-reported risk factors (including socioeconomic status) predict undiagnosed, prevalent type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). To externally validate Leicester Risk Assessment Score (LRAS), Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and Danish Diabetes Risk Score (DDRS), and to investigate how these predict a European Heart SCORE≥5% in a Danish population study.
METHODS: We included 21,205 adults from the Danish General Suburban Population Study. We used relative importance calculations of self-reported variables in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM. We externally validated established prediction models reporting ROC-curves for undiagnosed T2DM, pre-diabetes and SCORE.
RESULTS: More than 20% of people with T2DM were undiagnosed. The 7 most important self-rated predictors in sequential order were high BMI, antihypertensive-therapy, age, cardiovascular disease, waist-circumference, fitness compared to peers and family disposition for T2DM. The Area Under the Curve for prediction of undiagnosed T2DM was 77.1 for LRAS; 75.4 for DDRS and 67.9 for FINDRISC. AUCs for SCORE was 75.1 for LRAS; 62.3 for DDRS and 54.3 for FINDRISC.
CONCLUSIONS: BMI and self-reported cardiovascular disease are important risk factors for undiagnosed T2DM. LRAS performed better than DDRS and FINDRISC in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM and SCORE≥5%. SCORE performed best in predicting pre-diabetes.
METHODS: We included 21,205 adults from the Danish General Suburban Population Study. We used relative importance calculations of self-reported variables in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM. We externally validated established prediction models reporting ROC-curves for undiagnosed T2DM, pre-diabetes and SCORE.
RESULTS: More than 20% of people with T2DM were undiagnosed. The 7 most important self-rated predictors in sequential order were high BMI, antihypertensive-therapy, age, cardiovascular disease, waist-circumference, fitness compared to peers and family disposition for T2DM. The Area Under the Curve for prediction of undiagnosed T2DM was 77.1 for LRAS; 75.4 for DDRS and 67.9 for FINDRISC. AUCs for SCORE was 75.1 for LRAS; 62.3 for DDRS and 54.3 for FINDRISC.
CONCLUSIONS: BMI and self-reported cardiovascular disease are important risk factors for undiagnosed T2DM. LRAS performed better than DDRS and FINDRISC in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM and SCORE≥5%. SCORE performed best in predicting pre-diabetes.
Предметные рубрики MeSH
AdultAge FactorsAgedAged, 80 and overAntihypertensive AgentsArea Under CurveBlood PressureBody Mass IndexComorbidityCross-Sectional StudiesDenmarkDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2Educational StatusFemaleHumansHypertensionMaleMiddle AgedObesityPhysical FitnessPrediabetic StatePredictive Value of TestsPrevalenceROC CurveRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSelf ReportSocial ClassSocioeconomic FactorsSuburban HealthWaist CircumferenceYoung Adult