[Increase in uro-oncological health care needs due to demographic change: Extrapolation of cancer incidence numbers through 2030 as a basis for directed regional planning].

BACKGROUND

In Germany a considerable increase in the number of urological cancers is expected due to demographic change. Small-scale analyses are important for directed planning of uro-oncological health care due to significant regional variability in the demographic development. In this study the number of new urological cancer cases was extrapolated on the county level for Lower Saxony.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

The incidence rates for penile (C60), prostate (C61), testis (C62), kidney (C64), renal pelvis/ureter (C65-66) and bladder cancer (C67, D09.0, D41.4) were extrapolated for counties and urban communes from 2010 to 2020 and to 2030 based on the regional population forecast of the State Office for Statistics of Lower Saxony (2009-2031) and gender- and 5-year age-specific incidence rates for Lower Saxony (averaged for 2006-2010).

RESULTS

From 2010 (n=12.668) to 2020 and 2030, increases of 15% (n = 14.519; men: 15%, women: 10%) and 28% (n=16.201; men: 29%, women: 20%) are expected in urological cancers for Lower Saxony. The greatest rise is predicted for prostate cancer (2030: 31%, n = 9.732; C67 + D09.0 + D41.4: 30%; C60: 28%; C65-66: 27%; C64: 19%). Only testicular carcinomas are expected to decrease (-13%). The increase varies considerably between regions. In the counties the rates range from 7% (2030; C61: 10%) in Osterode am Harz to 63% in Vechta (C61: 70%). In the urban communes the greatest increase is predicted for Oldenburg (total: 40%; C61: 45%) and the lowest increase for Wolfsburg (total: 3%; C61: 3%).

CONCLUSION

Demographic change is expected to lead to a sharp increase in urological cancers. In health care planning (e.g. specialist care) regionally very heterogeneous developments and in particular high growth and close to home care of more and more older and less mobile cancer sufferers, respectively, must be considered for rural areas.