Interpretable LSTM model reveals transiently-realized patterns of dynamic brain connectivity that predict patient deterioration or recovery from very mild cognitive impairment.

Alzheimer's Disease (AZD) is a neurodegenerative disease for which there is now no known effective treatment. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is considered a precursor to AZD and affects cognitive abilities. Patients with MCI have the potential to recover cognitive health, can remain mildly cognitively impaired indefinitely or eventually progress to AZD. Identifying imaging-based predictive biomarkers for disease progression in patients presenting with evidence of very mild/questionable MCI (qMCI) can play an important role in triggering early dementia intervention. Dynamic functional network connectivity (dFNC) estimated from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) has been increasingly studied in brain disorder diseases. In this work, employing a recent developed a time-attention long short-term memory (TA-LSTM) network to classify multivariate time series data. A gradient-based interpretation framework, transiently-realized event classifier activation map (TEAM) is introduced to localize the group-defining "activated" time intervals over the full time series and generate the class difference map. To test the trustworthiness of TEAM, we did a simulation study to validate the model interpretative power of TEAM. We then applied this simulation-validated framework to a well-trained TA-LSTM model which predicts the progression or recovery from questionable/mild cognitive impairment (qMCI) subjects after three years from windowless wavelet-based dFNC (WWdFNC). The FNC class difference map points to potentially important predictive dynamic biomarkers. Moreover, the more highly time-solved dFNC (WWdFNC) achieves better performance in both TA-LSTM and a multivariate CNN model than dFNC based on windowed correlations between timeseries, suggesting that better temporally resolved measures can enhance the model's performance.