Diabetes Burden in the Middle East and North Africa Region, 1990-2023: An Ecological Time-Trend Analysis of GBD Estimates.

Background and

Objectives

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has one of the highest age-standardized diabetes prevalence rates globally, yet all-age, diabetes-specific evidence incorporating GBD 2023 estimates through 2023 remains limited. Materials and

Methods

Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for 21 MENA countries from 1990 to 2023, this ecological time-trend analysis quantified 33-year trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); compared pre-2019 and post-2019 trajectories using joinpoint regression; characterized age- and sex-specific burden patterns; and quantified contributions of modifiable risk factors.

Results

Age-standardized incidence increased 92%, from 251.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 231.5 to 272.4) to 482.5 (95% UI: 451.5 to 516.4) per 100,000, and prevalence more than doubled, from 5564 (95% UI: 5088 to 6024) to 11,247 (95% UI: 10,382 to 12,132) per 100,000. In 2023, males exhibited higher DALY rates than females in most adult age groups from age 15 years onward, shifting away from the female-predominant pattern seen in 1990; female rates remained higher at several of the oldest age groups. Children aged 0 to 14 years were the only group with declining DALY rates (-52% to -57%). Post-2019 incidence was higher in 15 of 21 countries, and six countries had higher DALY trends with non-overlapping confidence intervals. Because we only have four to five years of data, these short trends are preliminary and require care when evaluating. High body-mass index was the leading modifiable risk factor.

Conclusions

These data support country-specific prevention and chronic-care strategies across the MENA region.