A prediction model could foresee adequate height response in children eligible for growth hormone treatment.

AIM: Prediction models may be useful in accurately identifying children who will benefit from growth hormone (GH) treatment. We aimed to validate the Gothenburg prediction model for this purpose.

METHODS

The study included prepubertal children with GH deficiency who started treatment with GH during 2004-2016 at Queen Silvia Children's Hospital, Gothenburg, based on a first-year growth prediction of ≥0.7 SDS in height according to the Gothenburg prediction model on a GH dose of 33 μg/kg/day. Observed heights retrieved from medical charts were compared with predicted heights.

RESULTS

The study included 121 patients (64% boys) with at least one year of data after the start of GH treatment. The median (range) GH dose was 30 (10-43) µg/kg/day for the first year and age at start of treatment was 5.32 (3-11.8) years. The model correctly excluded poor responders resulting in 119/121 (98%) patients having a height gain of at least ≥0.5 SDS in a year. However, the model underestimated relatively low predictions and overestimated relatively high predictions, with a residual standard deviation of 0.31 SDS.

CONCLUSION

By using a validated prediction model for GH in a clinical context, unnecessarily treating short children with an expected poor height outcome can be avoided.