Predictive factors for multiple sclerosis in patients with clinically isolated spinal cord syndrome.

OBJECTIVES

To identify predictors of conversion to definite multiple sclerosis (MS) in patients with a cord clinically isolated syndrome.

METHODS

The predictive values for conversion to MS of clinical, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) variables in 114 patients with acute partial myelitis confirmed by a spinal cord lesion on MRI were studied. Other causes of cord syndromes were excluded.

RESULTS

MS was diagnosed in 78 patients (86%) during 4.0 ± 1.9 years of follow-up. Some 67 of these patients had a second clinical episode. The diagnosis of isolated myelitis was maintained for 36 patients, 78% of whom (28 cases) were followed for at least 2 years, comparable to the MS patients. Age, bladder involvement, ≥ 2 cord lesions on MRI, ≥ 9 brain lesions, ≥ 3 periventricular lesions and intrathecal IgG synthesis predicted conversion to clinically definite MS. Multivariate logistic analysis identified three predictors of MS diagnosis: age ≤ 40 years, inflammatory CSF and ≥ 3 periventricular lesions on brain MRI.

CONCLUSION

Two out of three baseline factors (age, periventricular lesions and inflammatory CSF) predicted conversion to MS with better accuracy than the revised McDonald criteria for dissemination in space.