[Space-time clustering analysis of acute schistosome infections in marshland and lake areas in five provinces].

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the time and space aggregation of acute schistosome infections in marshland and lake areas in five provinces (Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan province) from 2005 to 2012, so as to provide the evidence for establishing control strategies and taking effective control measures.

METHODS

The data of patients with acute schistosome infection in marshland and lake areas in five provinces from 2005 to 2012 were collected and analyzed with the concentration ratio and circular distribution methods for the epidemic season features and time aggregation of the infection, and with the spatial autocorrelation analysis for the space aggregation of the infected cases.

RESULTS

According to the concentration ratio, the occurrence of acute schistosome infection had strong seasonality, and the concentration ratio was 0.758; according to the circular distribution method, the peak day of acute schistosome infections was 10th, August. The spatial analysis suggested that the infected cases highly gathered around Poyang Lake, Dongting Lake and Yangtze River Basin in 23 counties of the five provinces, and the result of spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial autocorrelation index I was 0.16 (P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The occurrence of acute schistosome infections in lake regions of the 5 provinces shows strong seasonality and space aggregation, therefore we can bring the control mark forward, and take targeted prevention and control measures in high aggregation areas of acute schistosomiasis.