Estimation of the infectious reservoir of Plasmodium falciparum in natural vector populations based on oocyst size.

A method for determining the infectious reservoir of malaria (K) and vector survival rate (P) by measuring oocyst size and discriminating between the most recent and other infections is described. In the laboratory the mean diameter of 3 d oocysts in Anopheles gambiae, kept at 26 degrees C, was 11.5 microns and the mean diameter at day 5 was 24.5 microns. Oocyst sizes in wild caught mosquitoes from southern Tanzania, that had fed on the occupants of bed nets with holes in the sides, were more variable. 2060 A. gambiae s.l. and 1982 A. funestus were examined for oocysts 3 d after feeding; 796 and 654 oocysts from the 153 and 170 infected females, respectively, were measured. Because of misclassification errors, the use of a simple cut-off model, in which all oocysts less than 17.5 microns in diameter were considered to have arisen from the most recent feed, was thought to overestimate K and underestimate P. A statistical model which allows for overlap in the oocyst size distributions is described. Estimates of the infectious reservoir derived from this model were 2.8% for A. gambiae s.l. and 4.2% for A. funestus, and the estimated survival rates per gonotrophic cycle were 65.5% and 52.9%, respectively. The utility of measuring oocyst size in naturally infected mosquitoes is discussed.