Machine learning in predicting pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer using MRI: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the performance of machine learning models in predicting pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with rectal cancer using magnetic resonance imaging.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science for studies published before March 2024. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) was used to assess the methodological quality of the included studies, random-effects models were used to calculate sensitivity and specificity, I2 values were used for heterogeneity measurements, and subgroup analyses were carried out to detect potential sources of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

A total of 1699 patients from 24 studies were included. For machine learning models in predicting pCR to nCRT, the meta-analysis calculated a pooled area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88-0.93), pooled sensitivity of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.74-0.89), and pooled specificity of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.80-0.91). We investigated 6 studies that mainly contributed to heterogeneity. After performing meta-analysis again excluding these 6 studies, the heterogeneity was significantly reduced. In subgroup analysis, the pooled AUC of the deep-learning model was 0.93 and 0.89 for the traditional statistical model; the pooled AUC of studies that used diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) was 0.90 and 0.92 in studies that did not use DWI; the pooled AUC of studies conducted in China was 0.93, and was 0.83 in studies conducted in other countries.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic study showed that machine learning has promising potential in predicting pCR to nCRT in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Compared to traditional machine learning models, although deep-learning-based studies are less predominant and more heterogeneous, they are able to obtain higher AUC.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: Compared to traditional machine learning models, deep-learning-based studies are able to obtain higher AUC, although they are less predominant and more heterogeneous. Together with clinical information, machine learning-based models may bring us closer towards precision medicine.