Validation of the clinical utility of 4 guidelines in the initial triage of mucinous cystic lesions of the pancreas based on cross-sectional imaging: Experience with 188 surgically-treated patients.

INTRODUCTION: Over the years, several guidelines have been introduced to guide management of mucinous pancreatic cystic neoplasms (mPCN). In this study, we aimed to evaluate and compare the clinically utility of the Sendai-06, Fukuoka-12, Fukuoka-17 and European-18 guidelines in predicting malignancy of mPCN.

METHODS: One hundred and eighty-eight patients with mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCN) or intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) who underwent surgery were retrospectively reviewed and classified under the 4 guidelines. Malignancy was defined as high grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma.

RESULTS: Raised CA19-9>37U/ml, enhancing mural nodule≥5 mm and main pancreatic duct≥10 mm were significantly associated with malignancy on multivariate analysis. Increasing number of high risk features, absolute indications (European-18), worrisome risk or relative indications (European-18) were significantly associated with an increased likelihood of malignancy. The positive predictive values (PPV) of high risk features for Sendai-06, Fukuoka-12, Fukuoka-17 and absolute indications (European-18) for malignancy were 53%, 76%, 78% and 78% respectively. The negative predictive values (NPV) of the Sendai-06, Fukuoka-12 and Fukuoka-17 were 100%, while that of the European-18 was 92%. Risk of malignancy for patients with ≥4 worrisome features (Fukuoka-17) and ≥3 relative indications (European-18) was 66.7% and 75.0% respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: All 4 guidelines studied were useful in the initial triage of mPCN for the risk stratification of malignancy. The Fukuoka-17 had the highest PPV and NPV.