[Estimation of excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model].

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing from 1 January 2011 to 23 May 2015.

METHODS

The excess numbers of diarrheal cases among the children aged <5 years were estimated by using weekly outpatient visit data from two children's hospital in Beijing and adjusted Serfling regression model.

RESULTS

The incidence peaks of viral diarrhea were during 8th-10th week and 40th-42nd week in 2011, 40th-46th week in 2012, 43rd-49th week in 2013 and 45th week in 2014 to 11th week in 2015 respectively. The excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in the two children's hospital were 911(95%CI: 261-1 561), 1 998(95%CI: 1 250-2 746), 1 645 (95%CI: 891-2 397), 2 806(95%CI: 1 938-3 674) and 1 822(95%CI: 614-3 031) respectively, accounting for 40.38%(95%CI: 11.57%-69.19%), 44.21% (95% CI: 27.66%-60.77%), 45.08% (95% CI: 24.42%-65.69%), 60.87% (95% CI: 42.04%-79.70%) and 66.62% (95% CI: 22.45%-110.82%) of total outpatient visits due to diarrhea during 2011-2015, respectively. Totally, the excess number of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing was estimated to be 18 731(95%CI: 10 106-27 354) from 2011 to 23 May 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

Winter is the season of viral diarrhea for children aged <5 years. The adjusted Serfling regression model analysis suggested that close attention should be paid to the etiologic variation of viruses causing acute gastroenteritis, especially the etiologic variation of norovirus.