A System Dynamics Model of Caries Preventive Interventions in Thailand's School-Aged Population.

PURPOSE: To compare the long-term effects of the Ministry of Public Health's (MOPH) caries preventive interventions for 6- to 12-year-olds (supervised toothbrushing [STB], dental sealant, and combined STB+sealant) to the base case (no intervention) using the System Dynamics Model.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

The System Dynamics Model was used to evaluate the intervention scenarios of supervised toothbrushing (STB), sealant, and combined STB+sealant with the base-case scenario. The effectiveness data for the model's interventions were obtained from systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

RESULTS

The model determined that the caries-free population increased by 36.2%, 25.5%, and 14.5%, while the caries-affected population decreased by 8.1%, 5.5%, and 3.1% in the combined STB+sealant, sealant, and supervised toothbrushing scenarios compared to the base case at 15 years of age.

CONCLUSION

Combined STB+sealant is the most efficacious intervention among those administered to children between the ages of 6 and 12 with permanent teeth. In addition, the System Dynamics Model could be helpful in comparing interventions or policies to determine the optimal intervention for a given population.