International journal of radiation oncology, biology, physics · 2012
Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models.
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Xu Cheng-Jian, van der Schaaf Arjen, Van't Veld Aart A, Langendijk Johannes A, Schilstra Cornelis
Аннотация
PURPOSE: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models.
METHODS AND MATERIALS: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
RESULTS: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing.
CONCLUSION: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.
METHODS AND MATERIALS: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
RESULTS: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing.
CONCLUSION: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.