Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models for Asian Ever-Smokers.
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Yang Jae Jeong, Wen Wanqing, Zahed Hana, Zheng Wei, Lan Qing, Abe Sarah K, Rahman Md Shafiur, Islam Md Rashedul, Saito Eiko, Gupta Prakash C, Tamakoshi Akiko, Koh Woon-Puay, Gao Yu-Tang, Sakata Ritsu, Tsuji Ichiro, Malekzadeh Reza, Sugawara Yumi, Kim Jeongseon, Ito Hidemi, Nagata Chisato, You San-Lin, Park Sue K, Yuan Jian-Min, Shin Myung-Hee, Kweon Sun-Seog, Yi Sang-Wook, Pednekar Mangesh S, Kimura Takashi, Cai Hui, Lu Yukai, Etemadi Arash, Kanemura Seiki, Wada Keiko, Chen Chien-Jen, Shin Aesun, Wang Renwei, Ahn Yoon-Ok, Shin Min-Ho, Ohrr Heechoul, Sheikh Mahdi, Blechter Batel, Ahsan Habibul, Boffetta Paolo, Chia Kee Seng, Matsuo Keitaro, Qiao You-Lin, Rothman Nathaniel, Inoue Manami, Kang Daehee, Robbins Hilary A, Shu Xiao-Ou
Аннотация
METHODS: In a pooled analysis of 186,458 Asian ever-smokers from 19 prospective cohorts, we assessed calibration (expected-to-observed ratio) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) for each model. In addition, we developed the "Shanghai models" to better refine risk models for Asians on the basis of two well-characterized population-based prospective cohorts and externally validated them in other Asian cohorts.
RESULTS: Among the 11 models, the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool yielded the highest AUC (AUC [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 0.71 [0.67-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.69 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model had good calibration overall (expected-to-observed ratio [95% CI] = 1.06 [0.90-1.25]). Nevertheless, these models substantially underestimated lung cancer risk among Asians who reported less than 10 smoking pack-years or stopped smoking more than or equal to 20 years ago. The Shanghai models were found to have marginal improvement overall in discrimination (AUC [95% CI] = 0.72 [0.69-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.70 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) but consistently outperformed the selected Western models among low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters.
CONCLUSIONS: The Shanghai models had comparable performance overall to the best existing models, but they improved much in predicting the lung cancer risk of low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters in Asia.