The short-term prediction of preterm birth: a systematic review and diagnostic metaanalysis.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of fetal fibronectin (fFN), fetal breathing movements (FBM), and cervical length (CL) for the short-term prediction of preterm birth in symptomatic patients.

STUDY

DESIGN

Diagnostic metaanalysis using bivariate methods.

RESULTS

Pooled sensitivities for fFN, FBM, and CL for delivery within 48 hours of testing were 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43-0.78), 0.75 (95% CI, 0.57-0.87) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.54-0.90), respectively. Pooled specificities for fFN, FBM, and CL for delivery within 48 hours were 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86), 0.93 (95% CI, 0.75-0.98) and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84-0.91). Pooled sensitivities for fFN, FBM, and CL for delivery within 7 days were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80), 0.67 (95% CI, 0.43-0.84), and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.58-0.85). Pooled specificities for fFN, FBM, and CL for delivery within 7 days were 0.79 (95% CI, 0.76-0.83), 0.98 (95% CI, 0.83-1.00) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.85-0.92). Based on a pretest probability of 10% for delivery within 48 hours, posttest probabilities (positive and negative) were 27% and 5% for fFN, 54% and 3% for fFN, and 42% and 3% for CL. For a pretest probability of 20% for delivery within 7 days, posttest probabilities (positive and negative) were 48% and 7% for fFN, 89% and 8% for FBM, and 63% and 7% for CL.

CONCLUSION

In symptomatic patients, for fFN, absence of FBM, and CL have diagnostic use as predictors of delivery within 48 hours and within 7 days of testing. Absence of FBM appears to be the best test for predicting preterm birth.