Clinical score predicting a successful endoscopic approach of esophageal anastomotic leaks: external validation.

BACKGROUND: Recently, a clinical prediction rule has been proposed to predict the chance of successful endoscopic stenting in benign esophageal anastomotic leakage, perforation and fistula. We aimed to validate this score in a cohort of patients with anastomotic leaks managed with self-expanding metal esophageal stents, by assessing technical and clinical success rates and comparing the agreement between the predicted and the actual clinical success.

METHODS: A multicenter retrospective cohort study including patients submitted to endoscopic stenting due to anastomotic leak was conducted. Variables of the score (leak size, location and C-reactive protein) were collected and the chance of success (≤50, 50-70 and ≥70%) and its accuracy was assessed.

RESULTS: Fifty-three patients, submitted to esophageal stenting after cancer (n = 47) and bariatric surgery were included. Clinical success was achieved in 62% of patients. The area under the ROC curve to differentiate between successful and failed therapies showed a good discriminative power of the score (AUC 0.705; P < 0.01). For a predicted chance of success >50%, the positive predictive value was 72.5%; for a chance of success ≤50%, the negative predictive value was 69.2%.

CONCLUSIONS: The application of this predictive model in patients with anastomotic leaks proved to be valid in a different cohort from that in which it was derived. Its usefulness in clinical practice may be anticipated, favoring stenting in patients with a chance of success >50%. However, we must be cautious in patients with a lower probability of success and a case-by-case decision should be made.