Association of Serum Vitamin D and Hematological Parameters with SARS-CoV-2 PCR Positivity: A Combined Biomarker Approach in Asymptomatic Children.

Vitamin D has been implicated in immune modulation and susceptibility to respiratory infections, including COVID-19. However, data in asymptomatic pediatric populations, particularly those with household exposure, remain limited. This study aimed to investigate the association between serum vitamin D levels and hematological parameters with SARS-CoV-2 PCR positivity in asymptomatic children, and to evaluate their potential role in early risk stratification. This retrospective study included 127 asymptomatic children (aged 2-18 years) with confirmed household exposure to COVID-19. Participants were classified as PCR-positive (n = 74) or PCR-negative (n = 53). Serum 25(OH)D3 levels and hematological parameters were analyzed. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess discriminative performance, and a combined multimarker model was constructed. Serum vitamin D levels were significantly lower in PCR-positive children compared to PCR-negative children (17 ± 8 vs. 27 ± 11 ng/mL, p = 0.001). White blood cell (p = 0.002), platelet (p = 0.01), and neutrophil counts (p = 0.01) were significantly reduced, while basophil counts were higher in PCR-positive children (p = 0.02). In multivariable analysis, vitamin D (OR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.82-0.93, p < 0.001), platelet (p = 0.02), neutrophil (p = 0.02), and basophil counts (p = 0.01) remained independent predictors. ROC analysis showed that vitamin D had moderate discriminative performance (AUC: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.67-0.83), while platelet (AUC: 0.64), neutrophil (AUC: 0.61), and basophil (AUC: 0.62) counts showed modest performance. The combined multimarker model demonstrated improved predictive ability (AUC: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.72-0.88), with sensitivity of 71.6% and specificity of 68.2%. Additionally, vitamin D deficiency was significantly more frequent in PCR-positive children (43% vs. 19%, p = 0.003).

Conclusions

Lower vitamin D levels and associated hematological alterations are independently associated with SARS-CoV-2 PCR positivity in asymptomatic children. A combined biomarker approach may improve early risk stratification using simple and routinely available parameters. Further prospective studies are needed to validate these findings and clarify the role of vitamin D in preventive strategies.