JAMA network open · 2026
Trends in Violence Against Children in Australia.
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Grummitt Lucinda, O'Dean Siobhan, Slade Tim
Аннотация
IMPORTANCE: Administrative data are commonly used to monitor multiple forms of violence against children, within and external to the family, yet different systems capture distinct thresholds of harm. Reliance on single data sources may obscure population-level trends.
OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in multiple indicators of children's exposure to violence in Australia from 2014 to 2024 and to assess whether trends differ across police, health, and child protection data sources.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study used a time-trend analysis of Australian national administrative data spanning from 2014 to 2024. Data sources included national police-recorded assaults, hospitalizations, and child protection data from 3 Australian national agency databases. Participants were children aged 0 to 17 years, disaggregated by sex and age group. Analyses were conducted from January to April 2026.
EXPOSURES: Year, modeled continuously.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcomes were annual rates per 100 000 population on police-recorded sexual assault, family and domestic violence (FDV)-related assault, hospitalizations for assault, and child maltreatment substantiations. Temporal trends were modeled using quasi-Poisson regression with population offsets, and average annual percentage changes were estimated. Turning points were assessed using Davies test and segmented regression.
RESULTS: Annual population denominators ranged from 2.6 to 2.8 million girls and 2.7 to 3.0 million boys aged 0 to 17 years. Police-recorded sexual assault rates increased steadily among girls aged 0 to 9 years (2.8% per year; 95% CI, 2.0% to 3.6% per year) and those aged 10 to 17 years (4.2% per year; 95% CI, 3.4% to 5.0% per year). Among boys aged 10 to 17 years, rates accelerated sharply after 2021 (15.7% per year; 95% CI, 5.5% to 26.9% per year). FDV-related assault showed a similar trend, with stable to modest increases before 2021 followed by steep increases thereafter. Assault-related hospitalizations were generally stable, except for declines among boys aged 10 to 17 years (-1.4% per year; 95% CI, -2.7% to -0.1% per year). Overall child maltreatment substantiation remained stable, but declines were found for physical (-3.2% per year; 95% CI, -5.2% to -1.2% year) and sexual (-3.6% per year; 95% CI, -5.2% to -2.0% per year) abuse, alongside an increase in emotional abuse substantiations to 2020 (7.6% per year; 95% CI, 5.2% to 10.0% per year), followed by a decline (-7.0% per year; 95% CI, -11.8% to -1.9% per year).
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study using Australian national administrative data, trends in violence against children differed substantially across systems. Although police data indicated increased violence exposure, particularly in recent years, child-protection substantiations and hospitalizations remained stable or declined. Strengthened national surveillance is critical.
OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in multiple indicators of children's exposure to violence in Australia from 2014 to 2024 and to assess whether trends differ across police, health, and child protection data sources.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study used a time-trend analysis of Australian national administrative data spanning from 2014 to 2024. Data sources included national police-recorded assaults, hospitalizations, and child protection data from 3 Australian national agency databases. Participants were children aged 0 to 17 years, disaggregated by sex and age group. Analyses were conducted from January to April 2026.
EXPOSURES: Year, modeled continuously.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcomes were annual rates per 100 000 population on police-recorded sexual assault, family and domestic violence (FDV)-related assault, hospitalizations for assault, and child maltreatment substantiations. Temporal trends were modeled using quasi-Poisson regression with population offsets, and average annual percentage changes were estimated. Turning points were assessed using Davies test and segmented regression.
RESULTS: Annual population denominators ranged from 2.6 to 2.8 million girls and 2.7 to 3.0 million boys aged 0 to 17 years. Police-recorded sexual assault rates increased steadily among girls aged 0 to 9 years (2.8% per year; 95% CI, 2.0% to 3.6% per year) and those aged 10 to 17 years (4.2% per year; 95% CI, 3.4% to 5.0% per year). Among boys aged 10 to 17 years, rates accelerated sharply after 2021 (15.7% per year; 95% CI, 5.5% to 26.9% per year). FDV-related assault showed a similar trend, with stable to modest increases before 2021 followed by steep increases thereafter. Assault-related hospitalizations were generally stable, except for declines among boys aged 10 to 17 years (-1.4% per year; 95% CI, -2.7% to -0.1% per year). Overall child maltreatment substantiation remained stable, but declines were found for physical (-3.2% per year; 95% CI, -5.2% to -1.2% year) and sexual (-3.6% per year; 95% CI, -5.2% to -2.0% per year) abuse, alongside an increase in emotional abuse substantiations to 2020 (7.6% per year; 95% CI, 5.2% to 10.0% per year), followed by a decline (-7.0% per year; 95% CI, -11.8% to -1.9% per year).
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study using Australian national administrative data, trends in violence against children differed substantially across systems. Although police data indicated increased violence exposure, particularly in recent years, child-protection substantiations and hospitalizations remained stable or declined. Strengthened national surveillance is critical.