Latent Growth Modeling Trajectories of Cultural Values and Parental Monitoring as Predictors of Alcohol, Cigarette, and Drug Use Initiation Among Mexican-Origin Youth.

Substance use initiation during adolescence is a critical predictor of long-term dependency and adverse health outcomes, with Latino youth demonstrating disproportionately high rates of early use. This study examined how developmental trajectories of cultural values (CVs) and parental monitoring predict substance use initiation in a cohort of Mexican-origin youth followed from 5th to 11th grade. Data from the California Families Project (n = 674) were analyzed using latent growth modeling to assess the independent and combined influence of these trajectories on the odds of initiating alcohol, cigarette, and drug use by 11th grade, controlling for parental substance use and child gender. Analyses revealed significant linear declines in both CVs and parental monitoring over time. A steeper rate of decline in either construct was a robust predictor of increased odds of substance use initiation. Countering expectations, parental substance use did not strengthen these associations, but girls were at significant risk. Fostering the maintenance of cultural values and parental involvement via targeted interventions to sustain these protective factors and address risks for adolescent girls is needed to reduce substance use initiation among Latino youth.