Central European journal of public health · 2015
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF VARICELLA SPREAD IN SLOVAKIA.
СтатьяПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Zibolenová Jana, Szabóová Veronika, Tibor Baška, Ševčovič Daniel, Hudečková Henrieta
Аннотация
AIM: Varicella is a highly contagious disease. In Slovakia, 15,000-30,000 cases are reported annually. However, vaccination against varicella is not widely used in Slovakia. The aim of this paper is to predict the influence of vaccination administrated in different ages on the disease occurrence in different age groups.
METHODS: Deterministic, age-stratified SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model with stable population was used for prediction of varicella spread in Slovakia.
RESULTS: Vaccination of a group designated as 0 influences the proportion of susceptible and infected persons in all age groups, vaccination of 10 years old ones affects only the proportion of susceptible and infected individuals older than 10 years.
CONCLUSION: The increase of vaccination coverage should have a positive impact on the incidence of varicella in Slovakia. In case of vaccination coverage of 0 group in the range of 30-75%, it is necessary to pay attention to the protection of older children and adults.
METHODS: Deterministic, age-stratified SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model with stable population was used for prediction of varicella spread in Slovakia.
RESULTS: Vaccination of a group designated as 0 influences the proportion of susceptible and infected persons in all age groups, vaccination of 10 years old ones affects only the proportion of susceptible and infected individuals older than 10 years.
CONCLUSION: The increase of vaccination coverage should have a positive impact on the incidence of varicella in Slovakia. In case of vaccination coverage of 0 group in the range of 30-75%, it is necessary to pay attention to the protection of older children and adults.