Association between climatic conditions and infectious diseases: implications for Central Ethiopia region.

INTRODUCTION

Ethiopia faces heightened climate-health vulnerability due to topography, subsistence farming, and socio-economic limitations.

OBJECTIVE

This study analyzes the association between climate variables and infectious disease incidence in Central Ethiopia from 2013 to 2024.

METHODS

This study investigates climate-sensitive epidemiological trends of enteric fever, malaria, diarrheal diseases, and bacterial meningitis in Central Ethiopia (2013-2024), utilizing hospital-based surveillance and meteorological data with descriptive statistics, Spearman's correlation, and negative binomial regression to quantify disease burden.

RESULTS

Enteric fever accounted for the highest disease burden (48.5% of 113,456 cases), with a consistent female predominance. Malaria and diarrhea exhibited strong positive correlations with rainfall (ρ = 0.846, ρ = 0.99) and minimum temperature (ρ = 0.625, ρ = 0.482), peaking during wetter months. In contrast, meningitis and enteric fever were negatively associated with rainfall (ρ=-0.951, ρ=-0.554), with meningitis showing high variability (CV = 94.6%). Regression analysis revealed rainfall increased malaria and diarrhea risk but reduced meningitis and enteric fever odds; minimum temperature significantly elevated malaria risk (OR = 1.17, p = 0.015).

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the intricate relationship between climatic variability and disease burden in Ethiopia, revealing a consistent predominance of female cases in health facility records. The gender disparity necessitates further inquiry into differential health-seeking behaviors, exposure risks, and diagnostic access, ideally through population-based incidence studies. Findings emphasize the urgency of tailored public health interventions, including gender-responsive strategies for enteric fever, climate-sensitive early warning systems for malaria and diarrheal diseases, and non-climatic approaches for meningitis control. Integrating real-time climate data into surveillance platforms is recommended to enhance outbreak preparedness. It is important to note that these findings, based on two hospital datasets in Central Ethiopia, may have limited generalizability to the wider regional context.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.